The last few years I haven't been into the Oscar race as much as usual. In the past, I would generate my first prediction list in September or so and adjust it up until the night before. Today the Golden Globe nominations came out and recently the winners of the National Board of Review, New York, and L. A. Film Critics have been named. So, I think I can begin to make an intelligent guess on some of the major categories.

An asterisk means that is my early pick to win the award. A dividing line means I'm fairly confident about the names above the line, but the names below the line could possibly overtake.

Picture

This category is still in flux, though the contenders are beginning to solidify. I'm fairly confident about this prediction, though a couple of films could change (like we have to wait and see how Munich fares at the box office).

A History of Violence
*Brokeback Mountain
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
Walk the Line

I think Walk the Line is probably the weakest of these films.

Director

George Clooney (Good Night, and Good Luck)
Peter Jackson (King Kong)
*Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain)
Fernando Meirelles (Constant Gardener)
Steven Spielberg (Munich)

Fairly confident of this list.

Actor

*Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote)
Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain)
Joaquin Phoenix (Walk the Line)
David Strathairn (Good Night, and Good Luck)
Terrence Howard (Hustle and Flow)

The first four are certain and have been for months. The fifth slot has been the one up for grabs, and Howard seems to be gaining steam. I think only Cillian Murphy for Breakfast on Pluto could suplant him.

Actress

There have been hardly any clear, dominating women's roles this year in major films. Reese Witherspoon is the only exception. I look for Judi Dench to lock a nomination because she's Judi Dench. The other three slots are up for grabs.

Judi Dench (Mrs. Henderson Presents)
*Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line)
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Ziyi Zhang (Memoirs of a Geisha)
Felicity Huffman (Transamerica)
Laura Linney (The Squid and the Whale)
Keira Knightley (Pride and Prejudice)

Zhang will be included, probably, because she is one of the few female leads of a major film this season. I expect that Felicity Huffman will keep gaining ground after winning the National Board of Review. Linney is well respected, and Knightley is a rising new star, so not sure which of them could get the nod. Mario Bello of A History of Violence seems to be contending either as leading or supporting. I'm guessing she'll get a nod for the latter.

I really have little to no clue for the supporting awards, so I won't, at this time, venture a guess.