According to the Today Show this morning, the latest Gallup Poll shows a significant swing.  Two weeks ago Obama had an 8 point lead with white women.  This week McCain has a twleve point lead.  A 20 point swing.

If Obama ends up losing this election, his not picking Hillary Clinton as his running mate may go down as one of the biggest mistakes in American political history.

Of course the poll is a post-convention bounce and may still settle out. 

Plus, polls this year have been very unreliable.  Polls are based on likely voters, but this year there are so many new voters.  Also, pollsters use land lines and not cell phones.  So, polls currently under-represent cell phone only users, who, stereotypically skew Democrat.

If this poll trend holds true, it will be something stunning. 

Twenty-four years ago few women were serving in Congress or working as CEO's or university presidents.  It was closer to the high energy period of the women's movement.  If there was a time for identity politics, that would seem to be a good time.

Walter Mondale picked Geraldine Ferraro.  Since women are a majority of the population, if identity politics were the major factor, then Mondale should have won, easily.  But he didn't.  In fact, he lost worst than anyone ever -- Reagan's re-election was the biggest landslide in American history.  So, clearly, identity politics was not dominant in 1984.

So, why should it be so in 2008?  Now there are so many more women in prominent positions of leadership throughout our society.  Doesn't it seem like identity politics alone should be less of an issue in 2008 than it was in 1984?

Then, I wonder if that is not the issue. 

I suspect that it is not that Palin is a woman, but that many women identify with her everyday, All-American mom image (this was not part of Ferraro's image, or that of many of the women who made it in politics in the last few generations).