After weeks of joking with friends online about developing a bracket for the GOP primary, I thought the first debate gave us some sense of how to break it down.  Here is my bracket, with some explanations and predictions to follow.

1)  It seems that there are two major wings to the current GOP, with some overlap, obviously.  One is the traditional center of the party, those mainstream candidates who represent traditional conservatism and its issues, with the rare remaining moderate (like Pataki).  Of course what counts as a traditional conservative has shifted to the right over the years.  The other wing I'm labelling the "Right Wing" as a catch all.  

2)  The mainstream wing I've divided into three groupings.  Traditionally there might have been four.  One is the moderate, usually meaning a social moderate and fiscal conservative, of which there is only one in this year's race, and he won't be advancing very far.  There is also usually a foreign policy hawk division, of which this year there is only one candidate.  Sometimes there is a fight among those whose specialty is business and finance (I almost called this the "Steve Forbes slot").  This year Fiorina represents that and looking at Gilmore's website, he's trying for that.  But I didn't think that this year they represented a complete sector of the field.  I did lump together a number of candidates as Mainstream, again acknowledging that this has shifted to the right over the years.  In recent election cycles Christie and Rubio were both Tea Party darlings and both Kasich and Bush have very solid conservative records as governors.  But it seems to me that these four candidates are fighting to the establishment center of the party in this cycle in a way that the three over governors I've labeled "True Conservatives" are not.

3)  "Tea Party" seems to mean too many things, so I didn't use it as a particular wing or sector of the primary.  "True Conservative" seemed a good label for the three governors Walker, Jindal, and Perry who are closer to the establishment than the rest of the Right Wing but are running to the right of the traditional establishment candidates.  Ted Cruz would seem to ride the fence between Evangelical and Ideologue, but has of late presented himself mostly as competing for the Evangelical vote.  The Ideologue category has no common theme other than these are candidates who are trying to upset the apple cart.  Yes, Paul represents a distinct Libertarian sector, but of late that doesn't seem to affecting the conversation as much.

4)  Jindal and Perry seem to be competing with each other to be noticed.  Neither one of them, it appears to me, will overtake Walker, who rises automatically to the final four.  It doesn't mean he'll be one of the final four candidates standing, just that he'll win his division.  This contest between the three of them may be over before any votes are taken.

5)  Oddly the runners up in the 2008 and 2012 elections (Huckabee and Santorum) are going head-to-head for the same voters.  It seems to me that the Iowa Caucuses should settle that contest.  Then, a lot will depend on South Carolina, which would seem to settle the issue between the Huck/Sant winner and Ted Cruz as to who carries the Evangelical torch and whether this cycle that candidate will again be the runner is still to be determined.

6)  I can't imagine any of the ideologues advancing very far once actual votes are taken, and much of their support will likely shift to a different candidate.  Paul appears to have lost his earlier mojo; at one time he seemed likely to advance farther in this race. 

7)  My prediction is Walker versus either Huckabee or Cruz as the torch carrier for the Right Wing.  Maybe that will be settled in the Florida primary?

8)  Pataki will drop out early when he garners no votes.  Graham will pin his hopes on a South Carolina win, but I'm not sure what happens after that for him.  Gilmore shouldn't even be in the race, and Fiorina will have her moment, it appears.

9)  Bush and Rubio seem to be locked in a battle of the Floridians.  Will that primary settle their contest or will both carry through for months?

10)  One of either Kasich or Christie will be in a stronger position before voting starts and could gain momentum after others drop out.  Maybe the Michigan primary will be key to them?

11)  Except for 1964, the nominee has traditionally come from the traditional, mainstream, establishment side.  This year could be an anomaly, but it seems to me that the real race for the nomination is between Bush, Rubio, and either Kasich or Christie (acknowledging that like 2008 and 12 the right wing standard bearer may last to the end).